Grand National Betting - Denman goes from 149-1 to 9-1

When Betfair announced a change to their Million bonus series to include winning the Grand National as the final leg this season, there was obviously an element of laying down a real seven-figure challenge to the likes of Denman and Kauto Star.

After all, with Paul Nicholls dominating the staying chase division, the Betfair Million as it stood was realistically only ever likely to be won by Ditcheat’s selected runner in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November (just as Kauto Star did when scooping the Million in the 2006-07 season), the opening leg of the three-race bonus series.

So the Betfair Million bonus was changed this season to any horse finishing in the first three in the Betfair Chase, first or second in any Cheltenham Festival race and winning the Grand National.

At the time, connections of Denman challenged the changes, and said the new Million series was “practically impossible” to win.

But ironically news that Denman could now run in the National arguably makes it easier for rival trainers Jonjo O’Neill, Peter Bowen and David Pipe to win it this season.

Denman’s co-owner Harry Findlay said at the time: "I don't understand their reasoning. Why is there a bonus for winning a handicap? It's laughable. It's a bonus that has been devised by someone who either knows nothing about racing or is dead keen to get Denman to run in the Grand National, as he is the only horse who can win it. Either way, it's of no interest to us."

And Paul Nicholls said: "I think you can say Betfair's money is safe.

"The changes make it unlikely to the point of being practically impossible to win it. The Betfair is a Grade 1 chase, so you need a quality chaser to make it into the first three, which virtually guarantees having too much weight to win the National.

"As I don't want to run Kauto Star or Denman in the National next season, you can rule them out straight away."

Of course, Denman’s heart scare and Kauto Star’s last fence mishap at Haydock mean that they aren’t eligible for the Million this year, but three still are – Snoopy Loopy, Tamarinbleu and Exotic Dancer, the first three home in the Betfair Chase.

And the connections of recent runaway Lexus winner Exotic Dancer and Snoopy Loopy (unlike Pipe, both have indicated a willingness to go to Aintree this year) must be delighted by today’s confirmation that Denman could now be in the line-up because Denman’s participation would ensure only a handful will be in the handicap proper – and among those would be Exotic Dancer and Snoopy Loopy.

And with the Grand National prize money increased to £900,000 this year and the £1m Betfair bonus still available, there is a possibility that either horse could be running for the biggest-ever prize in National Hunt racing history in April.

Of course, there is the small matter of either horse coming first and second in a race at the Festival before that. That may prove tough for Snoopy Loopy, though that is seemingly the way he likes it, but Exotic Dancer would probably be favourite for the Ryanair if Sir Robert Ogden opted for that route.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin observed: “Obviously, Denman’s heart troubles necessitated a change to his campaign this season, so Harry and Paul’s comments in the summer have to be taken in that context.

“But we always thought the changes to this season’s Million were unfairly maligned and misunderstood, and to some extent this news vindicates our decision.

“Our reasoning was always that a top-class chaser would be given the carrot of a favourable Aintree handicap mark by Phil Smith, just as he had done in previous years.

“What price would Denman have been for the Million if he went to Aintree this year after winning the Betfair Chase and Gold Cup?

“You tailor the bonus to the situation as it presents itself, just as we did when introducing the Lexus as and/or middle leg option along with the King George to acknowledge the then Irish domination of the Gold Cup.

“If Denman runs at Aintree, then connections of Exotic Dancer must be sorely tempted to chance their National arm too, if he finishes first or second in any Cheltenham race.

“Jonjo said earlier in the season he thought Exotic Dancer an ideal type for the race, and his Lexus win showed he is a horse you underestimate at your peril - in any company.

“Exotic Dancer could be racing for National Hunt’s biggest-ever prize at Aintree. He may be 59-1 for the National on Betfair at the moment, but he would be second favourite if still in with a chance of the Million after Cheltenham, and was being aimed at Aintree.”

And Timeform spokesman Kieran Packman added: "The way the weights are framed nowadays by the BHA would likely give Denman strong claims were he to contest the Grand National. With only a handful of runners likely to be in the weights proper, and the possibility of Denman running off a lower mark than his current official one, we can certainly see why connections would be tempted.

“Denman's presence would likely make Exotic Dancer's connections give serious thought to a bid too, as he'd also be aided by the majority of the field being out of the handicap."

To win the Grand National – Betfair bet: 9-1 Denman, 16-1 Hear The Echo, 19-1 Butlers Cabin, 20-1 Comply Or Die, Snowy Morning, Others: 59-1 Exotic Dancer, 84-1 Snoopy Loopy.

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