My bookmaker chums are telling me that Cloudy Lane could go off as short as 4/1 for the National. Are the betting public really going to back him in to that price? For me, it’s just another example of the bookies shortening horses before the big race as they do annually. He might well win, but he won’t see a penny of my money at that price. Fortunately, there is some value to be had elsewhere on the card, starting with OH CRICK in the 2m Handicap Hurdle (due off 1.45pm).
Song Of Songs will be all the rage for this as he was cruising in the Coral Cup over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time before he ran out of stamina on the climb to the finish. He’ll be more effective over this trip, but Oh Crick will be the fresher horse having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival, and he’s been sensational this season, winning his last four races. Back him to extend that sequence to five.
Tidal Bay need only repeat his imperious Arkle performance to take the Maghull Novices’ Chase (2.15pm). However, I wouldn’t be keen on backing him at short odds, and suggest a small wager on Paul Nicholls’ TAKEROC to spring a ‘surprise‘. He too was deliberately kept away from Cheltenham, which is so often the key when tackling Aintree, and his trainer has been talking up his chances in his excellent column in the Racing Post. More importantly, he boasts some decent form having looked the real deal when a mile clear of the others on his debut at Sandown. I like him a lot.
The Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle (2.50pm) features last month’s Champion Hurdle runner-up Osana, who will no doubt go well for his in-form trainer David Pipe.
However, AL EILE has won this race twice in the last three years and proved he retains all his ability when winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
What’s more, he’ll be fresher than most as he didn’t make the trip over for Cheltenham and you can rely on his shrewd trainer having him in prime condition for this.
Hopefully, we’ll be showing a tidy profit by the time of the 3m Handicap Hurdle (3.25pm) as this race looks decidedly tricky to solve. FOREST PENNANT is only a tentative selection on the grounds that he is less exposed and fresher than most of his rivals, having had just five runs over hurdles, the last of which saw him finish fourth in a well-contested event at Sandown in early March.
If Cloudy Lane wins the National, I imagine there’ll be plenty of doubles going on to CLOUDY TIMES in the concluding Bumper (5.30pm), which would have bookmakers running for cover. Watch out for the dreadful headlines if they both manage to win!
Recommended Bets:*
Oh Crick 1pt win
Takeroc 2pt win
Al Eile 3pt win
1pt trixie (3 doubles, 1 treble) on the above.
*All at best morning-line price - bet365 and Stan James offer a best odds guarantee.