Finding the Grand National Winner By Numbers

Most people consider the Grand National to be a lottery, which is true in the respect that you need a lot of luck in running. However, we can sort the wheat from the chaff and come up with a decent shortlist of potential winners simply by using a series of statistical filters (with a bit of common sense thrown in for good measure). One caveat, though, while what has occurred frequently in the past is an indication of what is likely to happen in the future, there is no guarantee that it will (if only it was that easy!).

1. No room for lightweights
There is a daunting 74 entries at the five-day stage, but the safety limit of 40 means we can effectively chuck out anything below Bible Lord (the 50th horse in the weights) as these are almost certain to miss the cut.
Put a line through: Dix Villez, Flintoff (USA), Patsy Hall, In The Loop, Nadover, Pak Jack, Seymour Weld, Nine De Sivola, Tom Sayers, Oodachee, Kings Advocate, Dun Doire, Le Toscan, Out The Black, Puntal, Without A Doubt, Alexanderthegreat, Milan Deux Mille, Sandhurst, Lord Killeshanra, Lysander, Malko de Beaumont, Pass Me By, Mont Misere.
24 down, 50 left

2. Age of reason
No horse aged six, seven, 13 or 14 has either won or been placed in the National since the war. The fact that age is a factor should be no surprise as this is a severe test of stamina and that is the domain of the older generation (but not too old).
Put a line through: Pomme Tiepy (6yo), Big Fella Thanks (7yo), Can't Buy Time (7yo), Eurotrek (13yo).
4 down, 46 left

3. Zut alors!
No French-bred has won the National for over a century and not through want of trying in recent years - they have supplied 25 per cent of the runners in the past eight renewals. and of the 11 that took part last year only three completed, with the best finishing seventh. The reason being very few races in France are run beyond 3m, so breeders have no need to install stamina into their stock.
Put a line through: My Will, L'Ami, Butler's Cabin, Golden Flight, Mon Mome, Musica Bella.
6 down, 40 left

4. Staying power
Every single winner of the National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over 3m. Think about it. If a horse has not won over 3m, then why would it have the necessary stamina to win over 4m4f?
Put a line through: Maljimar (Irish Invader just scrapes in on account of his hurdles win over 3m).
1 down, 39 left

5. The price is right
Since Foinavon's shock success in 1967, there have been only two 40/1 winners and two 33/1 winners, while over the past 25 years the average SP of the winner is around 17/1. Therefore, we can wave goodbye to anything currently priced at 66/1 (to be on the safe side) or bigger.
Put a line through: Idle Talk, Companero, Niche Market, Reveillez, Fleet Street, Fundamentalist, Arteea, Cerium, Kelami, Zabenz, Iron Man, Mattock Ranger, Bagan, Beat The Boys, Bible Lord.
15 down, 24 left

6. A weighty issue
In the last 50 runnings, only nine horses have defied a weight burden of more than 11st, with Red Rum winning two of those races. The last winner to carry in excess of 11st was Hedgehunter in 2005, and he was only just over the threshold with 11st 1lb. In fact, since 1988 only 15 horses have even been placed when carrying more than 11st - third and fourth in 2008.
Put a line through: Cloudy Lane, War Of Attrition (non-runner), Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply Or Die, Ollie Magern, Stan, Black Apalachi, Hear The Echo, Preists Leap, State Of Play, Silver Birch.
13 down, 11 left

Those 11 are: Offshore Account (50/1 William Hill), Parsons Legacy (33/1 bet365), Battlecry (50/1 Totesport), Cornish Sett (33/1 Boylesports), Darkness (25/1 Stan James), Irish Invader (25/1 Coral), Rambling Minster (10/1 Blue Square), Southern Vic (20/1 Ladbrokes), Kilbeggan Blade (25/1 Betfred), Brooklyn Brownie (40/1 Coral) and Himalayan Trail (33/1 William Hill). And we can reduce this down even further.

Since Red Rum's third success in 1977, only two horses that have completed the course the previous year have gone on to win the following year, so we can wave goodbye to Cornish Sett who finished 12th last year.

Remarkably, considering the number of runners, nine of the past 10 winners ran off a mark between 136 and 144, which rules out Parsons Legacy (146) and Offshore Account (147).

If we wanted to be really brutal, we could rule out anything that is 'out of form' and by that I mean anything that finished out of the top six last time, which takes out Battlecry (pulled up) and Himalayan Trail (11th).

Finally, as six of the past eight winners had experienced the big Aintree fences before, we should consider only those horses who have jumped round before. Southern Vic ran in this season's Becher Chase but blundered and unseated his rider at the Canal Turn, so that doesn't count.

Of the remaining five horses, only one horse has completed over the National fences when finishing second in the Sefton Chase in November. It's name - BROOKLYN BROWNIE.

 

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Tags: Aintree,  Battlecry,  Brooklyn Breeze,  Cornish Sett,  Darkness,  Grand National,  Grand National 2009,  Himalayan Trail,  Irish Invader,  Kilbeggan Blade,  Offshore Account,  Parsons Legacy,  Rambling Minster,  Southern Vic