Grand National: Punters Snap Up Early Value

The unveiling of the Grand National weights always sees a flurry of ante post betting activity and a large number of horses were backed yesterday, including the Paul Nicholls-trained duo of Big Fella Thanks and My Will.

Big Fella Thanks ran away with the Skybet Chase last time and the way he jumped around Doncaster at speed suggests that the big fences at Aintree will hold no fears for him. He might be inexperienced after just five chase runs, but he's still unexposed and the National tends to be won these days by such types as opposed to old plodders so, at this stage, he looks to have as good a chance as anything. The early 25/1 has long gone but he still makes plenty of appeal at the general 16/1.

His stablemate My Will has been given a helping hand by the handicapper after missing last season with a leg problem and there was a lot to like about his comeback run in the Hennessy, when a staying-on fifth to Madison Du Berlais. He jumps well too so the current 25/1 (Victor Chandler) represents value, while a third Nicholls-trained runner, Cornish Sett, is overpriced at 50/1 (Blue Square) based on his Welsh National second.

Hear The Echo (my long-range fancy) and Butler's Cabin are fighting it out for favouritism and remain quite solid, despite Mouse Morris voicing concerns about Hear the Echo's weight of 10st 11lb. However, I'm not put off by his weight as he impressed me so much when winning the Irish National and, at the age of eight, he remains open to further improvement. His ability to jump, travel and stay will make him hard to beat and, if you haven't already backed him, he's worth adding to your Grand National portfolio of bets - snap up Coral's 16/1.

As for Butler's Cabin, he was going well under Tony McCoy before falling at Becher's on the second circuit last year, and there'll be plenty of punters willing to back him to make amends this time. bet365 are particularly keen to keep him on their side offering just 12/1, but 16/1 is freely available and he has the potential to shorten considerably before the big day.

Other horses to come in for support at bigger odds were Can't Buy Time (25/1 Betfred), Hot Weld (33/1 Stan James), Simon (33/1 Ladbrokes), State Of Play (33/1 Skybet), and 2007 winner Silver Birch (401 bet365), who recently returned to action when winning a point-to-point in Ireland. He looks reasonably-treated off 10st 6lb (assuming top weight Exotic Dancer runs), as does last year's winner Comply Or Die (20/1 Ladbrokes), who has been trained solely with Aintree in mind.

Of those near the top of the betting, it appears that bookmakers are most happy to lay Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi, Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane and recent Levy Board Chase winner Madison Du Berlais.

 

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Tags: 2009 Grand National,  Big Fella Thanks,  Black Apalachi,  Butler's Cabin,  Can't Buy Time,  Cloudy Lane,  Comply Or Die,  Grand National,  Grand National 2009,  Grand National Tips,  Grand National Weights,  Hear The Echo,  Hot Weld,  Madison Du Berlais,  My Will,  Silver Birch,  Simon,  Snowy Morning,  State Of Play