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Grand National Stats That Matter

Ross Aylward
 
  

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The Grand National is possibly the best race of the year for trends followers and here are some of the stats that really matter when trying to pick the winner of this year’s race.

Grittar (7/1), West Tip (15/2), Rough Quest (7/1), Earth Summit (7/1) and Hedgehunter (7/1) are the only winners to be returned at less than 10/1 since 1978. However, fancied horses have a fair record as, since 1968, the winner has been returned at 16/1 or less on 29 occasions.

There have been four winning favourites in the last 29 runnings: Grittar (1982), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998) and Hedgehunter (2005)

At the time of writing, Cloudy Lane is the current favourite – a best-priced 10/1 with Boylesports, Stan James and totesport.

Nine-year-olds have proved the most successful age group in recent years, providing eight of the last 29 winners.

Of this year’s fancied horses, Mr Pointment (14/1 VCbet), Simon (16/1 Ladbrokes), Slim Pickings (16/1 bet365), McKelvey (20/1 Paddy Power), Comply Or Die (25/1 Blue Square) and Dun Doire (33/1 VCbet), all come under that age bracket.

However, age has proved no barrier to success. There have been seven winning 11-year-olds in the last 29 runnings.

D’Argent (40/1 BetDirect) and Joes Edge (33/1 Ladbrokes) look to have the best chance of adding to that tally this year.

There have been just two French-trained winners, and three bred in France.

That doesn’t bode well for the chances of L’Ami (66/1 Stan James) and the Racing Post Chase second Kelami (33/1 bet365).

Only two greys have won: The Lamb (1868 and 1871) and Nicolaus Silver (1961). The last grey to go close was What’s Up Boys, runner-up in 202. Before him, Suny bay was second in 1997 and the following year.

Jenny Pitman is the only woman to have trained the winner of the Grand National, a feat she has managed twice - Corbiere in 1983 and Royal Athlete in 1995.

This year, Mrs John Harrington and Miss Venetia Williams, who saddle Knight Legend (50/1 Ladbrokes) and Mon Mome (40/1 BetDirect) respectively, look to have the best chances of adding to the record of the fairer sex.

After Bobbyjo ended a lean spell for the Irish in 1999, Irish-trained horses have won six of the last nine Grand Nationals.

That means we should pay particular attention to Snowy Morning (16/1 Ladbrokes), Slim Pickings, Point Barrow (20/1 bet365) and Chelsea Harbour (33/1 Skybet). But remember, last year’s Irish-trained winner was a returned at 33/1!

In addition to the above, the last ten winners all shared the same characteristics:

• Were aged between eight and 10 years old
• Had earned a handicap rating of 135 on the day of the race
• Carried 11st 5lb or under
• Had previously won a race over at least three miles
• Had run in at least 10 chases
• Had previously won a chase worth over £17k

Hopefully, that will have helped you narrow down the field to leave the best bets in this year’s National – good luck!

 

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