When it comes to finding the winner of this year’s Grand National, the best place to start is last year’s race. Sadly, Silver Birch, last year’s 33/1 shock winner, will not be bidding for a repeat due to injury, but it’s all systems go for Slim Pickings, who was a striking third in the race.
After watching several re-runs, it’s clear that Tom Taafe’s runner travelled supremely well throughout the race. However, if anything, that proved to be his downfall as he found himself in front too early (a bit like Hedgehunter in 2004), leaving himself a sitting duck for the winner and the fast finishing McKelvey. Surely, this year’s instructions will be to ride him with a bit more restraint and try to get a lead until the last fence, possibly longer. Still only a nine-year-old (the most successful age group in recent years), he can go two better this time and he’s a must for any ante-post betting plan at the current 16/1 (Ladbrokes and Totesport).
Point Barrow went off co-favourite last year, but only got as far as the first. That’s unlikely to happen again this year and, as a previous winner of the Irish National and Pierse Handicap Chase (the latter under top weight) he has plenty of big-field form to his name. After a spell in the doldrums, he looked to be on his way back to his best in the Thyestes Chase last time, and it would be no surprise to see him backed again in the run-up to the race. He’s worth a bet at 20/1 (Paddy Power, VCbet).
Of those currently at the head of the market, it can be argued that Mr Pointment and Snowy Morning owe their position to the fact they are trained by Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls respectively. While Mr Pointment proved himself to be a fine jumper when winning the Becher Chase in November (for which he’s earned a harsh weight), I doubt he has the necessary chasing experience. The same can be said for Snowy Morning, but even more so as he has looked an iffy jumper at times and, besides, he was most disappointing on his latest start at Fairyhouse.
After sound wins at Haydock and Ayr on his last two starts, Cloudy Lane has been a significant market mover since the weights came out – now a best-priced 10/1 with Boylesports and Stan James after being available at 25/1. Trained by Donald McCain, who no doubt will have learned a lot from his father Ginger on how to prepare a National winner, he must have a serious chance on decent ground (soft might just find him out). However, at this stage, there’s more scope for backing the two Irish runners at decent prices in the hope of being in a healthy position on the day.
Of course, I’ll be adding more horses to my National portfolio of bets nearer the time, so keep checking the site for the latest hot news and tips.
Recommended Bets:
Slim Pickings 1pt each way @ 16/1 Ladbrokes, Totesport
Point Barrow 1pt each way @ 20/1 Paddy Power, VCbet