When it comes to picking the winner of this race over the National fences, the obvious starting point is to scrutinize past races over this course, especially as the past four winners had all previously raced in the Topham, Becher Chase or Grand National. The other stat that those who follow trends will be taking into accounts is that the last seven winners carried less than 11st.
The horse with ticks in all the right boxes is PAK JACK (11/1 bet365), who was third in this race two years ago and has now finished in the first three in each of his three starts over the unique Aintree fences. With the weights headed by the 145-rated Natal, he also has a nice racing weight of 10st 11lb. It’s a slight concern that he hasn’t been seen since finishing third to Mr Pointment in the Becher Chase in November, when he arguably didn’t see out the 3m2f trip – 2m5f should be ideal here. But I fancy he’s been laid out for this by his trainer Richard Phillips, who reports him in “good nick”, and he seems sure to make a bold bid.
Paul Nicholls runs a couple of likely types in Natal (10/1 Stan James) and Gwanako (8/1 Paddy Power), but the latter, with Ruby Walsh on board, looks the stable first string. Successful over fences as a three-year-old, he has been returned to chasing recently after struggling in good company over hurdles, and ran a cracker last time out when second in the Racing Post Chase at Cheltenham. If he jumps these fences as well as he did those at Cheltenham, he’ll be a formidable rival, although I just wonder if this race could come a year too soon.
Kenzo III (10/1Betdirect) and Nacarat (10/1 VCbet) are others to consider, but the value outsider could be Brendan Powell’s WHICH POCKET, who was running a big race over these fences in the Grand Sefton Chase last November when falling at the Canal Turn. He could outrun his current odds of 20/1 (Boylesports).
Recommended Bets:
Pak Jack 2pts @ 11/1 bet365
Which Pocket 1pt @ 20/1 Boylesports