2.00 Mersey Novices' Hurdle (2m4f)
CAPE TRIBULATION (7/2 bet365) seemed to run out of gas last time in the Albert Bartlett over 3m which was a bit surprising as I thought he was an out-and-out stayer. Before that, he had won his first two starts over hurdles in the style of a good horse and I'm prepared to give him another chance now he's dropping back in distance.

2.35 Maghull Novices' Chase (2m)
This looks a match between Tatenen and KALAHARI KING (13/8 bet365), with preference for the latter. Ferdy Murphy's eight-year-old lost out by a whisker in the Arkle and the combination of a flat track and fast ground (which won't suit Tatenen) here should see him improve again - banker material.

3.10 Aintree Hurdle (2m4f)
Champion Hurdle second Celestial Halo is almost certain to go off favourite, but he had a hard race at Cheltenham and takes on fresher rivals here, which makes him a lay in my opinion. Al Eile should make a bold attempt to emulate Morley Street's remarkable achievement of four Aintree Hurdle victories, but I just prefer the chances of CATCH ME (11/2 Paddy Power), who was good enough to finish sixth in last year's Champion Hurdle and is much better over this sort of trip

3.45 John Smith's Handicap Chase (3m1f)
Connections of Maljimar will be hoping for some compensation after their horse just got beat at Cheltenham and then missed out on getting into the National by one - talk about unlucky and they say these things come in threes! He's respected but as he didn't seem to quite get home at the Festival over this trip, preference is for PETER POLE (15/2 Stan James), who has dotted up in two mickey mouse races since joining Tim Vaughan from France but looks well up to winning in this higher grade.

4.20 Grand National (4m4f)
The big one and this year's renewal looks as open as I can remember. One horse I can't have winning is the favourite My Will, who doesn't jump well enough in my opinion and has too much weight (11st 4lb). My advice would be stick to horses in the 10st 6lb to 10st 9lb weight bracket, which narrows it down to eight. Of these, Rambling Minster has the most obvious chance, but he's plenty short enough now and I'd rather back IRISH INVADER (25/1 Coral), BROOKLYN BROWNIE (33/1 Betfred) and HIMALAYAN TRAIL (33/1 Skybet) at bigger prices. They'll probably bring each other down at the first so save half your stake and back them win only.

4.55 John Smith's Handicap Hurdle (2m)
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER won't be much of a price but I'm not going to put up anything against him as he has the look of a good thing after his excellent second in the Imperial Cup after being hampered. He's up 9lb for that but is surely much better than what he's shown so far and the talented Aidan Coleman does the steering. I'm hoping for 4/1 which might be wishful thinking.

5.30 Mares Only National Hunt Flat Race (2m1f)
I'm loathe to tip up another favourite but LIDAR was massively impressive when winning at Donny last time and is a fresh horse having skipped Cheltenham to wait for this. His trainer Alan King has been in blinding form at this meeting and he can sign off in style. Snap up the best morning-line price, bearing in mind that bet365, William Hill and Stan James all go best odds.

Selections:
Cape Tribulation
Kalahari King - NAP
Catch Me
Peter Pole
Irish Invader / Brooklyn Brownie / Himalayan Trail (all win only)
Seven Is My Number - NEXT BEST
Lidar

2.00 Top Novices' Hurdle (2m)
American Trilogy will be a popular choice (and a skinny price) after demolishing his rivals in the County Hurdle last time, but the form of that race may be suspect and, besides, Cheltenham winners often struggle to follow-up here. Take him on with Supreme Novices' sixth RED MOLONEY (11/2 bet365) who will be better suited to this sharper 2m on better ground, and should strip fitter for his run at Cheltenham.

2.35 Mildmay Novices' Chase (3m1f)
The Paul Nicholls-trained HERECOMESTHETRUTH (2/1 Stan James) is the best option having won five out of six this season and he'd be unbeaten had he not run out when disputing the lead with eventual easy winner Shining Gale (re-opposing here) at Cheltenham in November. He's not without his quirks, but he's a fantastic jumper and a clear round should ensure another trip to the winner's enclosure.

3.10 Melling Chase (2m4f)
After doing my money on VOY POR USTEDES (13/8 Ladbrokes) at Cheltenham, I'm confident of recouping my losses here. He made a couple of uncharacteristic jumping mistakes in the Ryanair Chase but still battled on bravely up the hill. On that form, he holds Schindlers Hunt and Tidal Bay and his stable is in blinding form at this meeting with two winners on Thursday.

3.45 Topham Handicap Chase (2m6f)
Friday is 'Ladies Day' and the feature race can go to the talented mare PING PONG SIVOLA (15/2 Coral), who ran a cracker last time out at the Festival over this trip. Jumping boldly, she set sail for home a long way from home at Cheltenham, and looked set to win until being collared by her stablemate Something Wells jumping the last. With only 10st 3lb on her back, she could take some catching this time.

4.20 Sefton Novices' Hurdle (3m)
Karabak is the clear form choice on his latest second to Mikhael d'Haguenet at Cheltenham, but he had a hard race there and might still be feeling his exertions, so I can't back him at around 2/1. Howard Johnson's Cheltenham string ran as if they were a gallop short at Cheltenham after being held up by bad weather, including ON RAGLAN ROAD who ran really well under the circumstances to be fourth in the Albert Bartlett. At 12/1 (Blue Square), he makes plenty of each-way appeal.

4.55 Handicap Hurdle (3m)
This is wide-open but MAMLOOK is worth an interest with conditions to suit. He ran well in unsuitably heavy ground at Ascot on his penultimate start and was a shade unlucky at Cheltenham last time out when stumbling after being hampered before three out. Good enough to finish second at Royal Ascot over 2m4f, this trip could be the making of him over hurdles and I fancy him quite strongly. I'm hoping for a best morning-line price of 10/1.

5.30 Mares Only National Hunt Flat Race (2m1f)
Not a race to go overboard on by any means but LISS NA TINTRI (10/1 Paddy Power) showed plenty of speed to win at Limerick last time and, being a daughter of Presenting, she won't be hampered by the better ground.

Selections:
Red Moloney
Herecomesthetruth
Voy Por Ustedes
Ping Pong Sivola - NEXT BEST
On Raglan Road (each-way)
Mamlook - NAP
Liss Na Tintri

2.00 Liverpool Hurdle (3m)
Only once has the World Hurdle winner followed up here and this year's winner Big Bucks did have a hard race at Cheltenham, so I'm looking to take him on. MIGHTY MAN (5/1 Sportingbet) was beaten a long way at Cheltenham, but he has been trained specifically for this race, which he won in both 2006 and 2007, and gets a handy 8lb from Big Buck's.

2.35 Anniversary Novices' Hurdle (2m)
Walkon and Starluck, second and fourth in the Triumph Hurdle respectively, are vying for favouritism, but neither will cope with HEBRIDEAN (7/2 Coral), who missed Cheltenham for this race. His trainer Paul Nicholls was sounding bullish in his Racing Post column last Saturday, saying: "I'm very, very (note the second "very") happy with him and he's in the best form since he's been here." That'll do for me!

3.10 Totesport Bowl Chase (3m 1f)
After writing DENMAN (10/11 Ladbrokes) off after his Kempton defeat, I'll be eating my words if he wins this in the style of the horse of last season. Going back left-handed will help him do just that and I reckon the rest playing for places - banker!

3.45 Fox Hunters' Chase (2m6f)
The best horse according to the ratings is Agus A Vic, who comes here fresh after missing Cheltenham. He's by far the most likely winner, but neither trip or ground are ideal and current odds of around 7/2 look stingy. THEATRE KNIGHT clearly loves these fences, having been placed in a Topham and a Grand Sefton, and he's an each-way price - 33/1 with bet365.

4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase (2m)
A wide-open handicap in which several can be fancied, but David Pipe's I'M SO LUCKY (20/1 William Hill) should go well at a price. His best form has been on flat tracks such as this, including when second in a competitive handicap hurdle at this meeting last year, and good ground suits.

4.55 Manifesto Novices' Chase (2m4f)
Chapoturgeon will be tough to beat if reproducing the same form that saw him win the Jewson Novices' Chase in impressive style. However, Cheltenham and Aintree are like chalk and cheese and horses struggle to double-up, so take him on with TARTAK (11/2 Blue Square). Tom George's runner ran a cracker to be fifth in the Arkle but is likely to be seen to better effect on this flatter track and over an additional four furlongs.

5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)
A trappy race to finish with but it might be worth giving SUNNYHILLBOY (12/1 Paddy Power) a chance to prove his festival running all wrong now he is back up in trip and with more patient tactics likely to be reinstated. AP rides.

Selections:
Mighty Man
Hebridean - NAP
Denman
Theatre Knight (each-way)
I'm So Lucky (each-way) - NEXT BEST
Tartak
Sunnyhillboy

Most people consider the Grand National to be a lottery, which is true in the respect that you need a lot of luck in running. However, we can sort the wheat from the chaff and come up with a decent shortlist of potential winners simply by using a series of statistical filters (with a bit of common sense thrown in for good measure). One caveat, though, while what has occurred frequently in the past is an indication of what is likely to happen in the future, there is no guarantee that it will (if only it was that easy!).

1. No room for lightweights
There is a daunting 74 entries at the five-day stage, but the safety limit of 40 means we can effectively chuck out anything below Bible Lord (the 50th horse in the weights) as these are almost certain to miss the cut.
Put a line through: Dix Villez, Flintoff (USA), Patsy Hall, In The Loop, Nadover, Pak Jack, Seymour Weld, Nine De Sivola, Tom Sayers, Oodachee, Kings Advocate, Dun Doire, Le Toscan, Out The Black, Puntal, Without A Doubt, Alexanderthegreat, Milan Deux Mille, Sandhurst, Lord Killeshanra, Lysander, Malko de Beaumont, Pass Me By, Mont Misere.
24 down, 50 left

2. Age of reason
No horse aged six, seven, 13 or 14 has either won or been placed in the National since the war. The fact that age is a factor should be no surprise as this is a severe test of stamina and that is the domain of the older generation (but not too old).
Put a line through: Pomme Tiepy (6yo), Big Fella Thanks (7yo), Can't Buy Time (7yo), Eurotrek (13yo).
4 down, 46 left

3. Zut alors!
No French-bred has won the National for over a century and not through want of trying in recent years - they have supplied 25 per cent of the runners in the past eight renewals. and of the 11 that took part last year only three completed, with the best finishing seventh. The reason being very few races in France are run beyond 3m, so breeders have no need to install stamina into their stock.
Put a line through: My Will, L'Ami, Butler's Cabin, Golden Flight, Mon Mome, Musica Bella.
6 down, 40 left

4. Staying power
Every single winner of the National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over 3m. Think about it. If a horse has not won over 3m, then why would it have the necessary stamina to win over 4m4f?
Put a line through: Maljimar (Irish Invader just scrapes in on account of his hurdles win over 3m).
1 down, 39 left

5. The price is right
Since Foinavon's shock success in 1967, there have been only two 40/1 winners and two 33/1 winners, while over the past 25 years the average SP of the winner is around 17/1. Therefore, we can wave goodbye to anything currently priced at 66/1 (to be on the safe side) or bigger.
Put a line through: Idle Talk, Companero, Niche Market, Reveillez, Fleet Street, Fundamentalist, Arteea, Cerium, Kelami, Zabenz, Iron Man, Mattock Ranger, Bagan, Beat The Boys, Bible Lord.
15 down, 24 left

6. A weighty issue
In the last 50 runnings, only nine horses have defied a weight burden of more than 11st, with Red Rum winning two of those races. The last winner to carry in excess of 11st was Hedgehunter in 2005, and he was only just over the threshold with 11st 1lb. In fact, since 1988 only 15 horses have even been placed when carrying more than 11st - third and fourth in 2008.
Put a line through: Cloudy Lane, War Of Attrition (non-runner), Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply Or Die, Ollie Magern, Stan, Black Apalachi, Hear The Echo, Preists Leap, State Of Play, Silver Birch.
13 down, 11 left

Those 11 are: Offshore Account (50/1 William Hill), Parsons Legacy (33/1 bet365), Battlecry (50/1 Totesport), Cornish Sett (33/1 Boylesports), Darkness (25/1 Stan James), Irish Invader (25/1 Coral), Rambling Minster (10/1 Blue Square), Southern Vic (20/1 Ladbrokes), Kilbeggan Blade (25/1 Betfred), Brooklyn Brownie (40/1 Coral) and Himalayan Trail (33/1 William Hill). And we can reduce this down even further.

Since Red Rum's third success in 1977, only two horses that have completed the course the previous year have gone on to win the following year, so we can wave goodbye to Cornish Sett who finished 12th last year.

Remarkably, considering the number of runners, nine of the past 10 winners ran off a mark between 136 and 144, which rules out Parsons Legacy (146) and Offshore Account (147).

If we wanted to be really brutal, we could rule out anything that is 'out of form' and by that I mean anything that finished out of the top six last time, which takes out Battlecry (pulled up) and Himalayan Trail (11th).

Finally, as six of the past eight winners had experienced the big Aintree fences before, we should consider only those horses who have jumped round before. Southern Vic ran in this season's Becher Chase but blundered and unseated his rider at the Canal Turn, so that doesn't count.

Of the remaining five horses, only one horse has completed over the National fences when finishing second in the Sefton Chase in November. It's name - BROOKLYN BROWNIE.

1. Twenty five of the last 30 winners carried less than 11st.

2009 - There'll be more horses than ever carrying over 11st, including the current ante-post favourite My Will (10/1 Coral).

2. Irish-trained horses have won six of the past 10 runnings: Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Monty's Pass (2003), Hedegehunter (2005), Numbersixvalverde (2006) and Silver Birch (2007).

2009 - What price an Irish-trained winner? Well, Ladbokes go 3/1 (as short as 7/4 in a place), while an Irish-trained 1-2 is only 5/1 with Totesport. According to the betting, their best chances are Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi (12/1 William Hill), Southern Vic (18/1 Sportingbet), War Of Attrition (20/1 Coral) and Hear The Echo (18/1 Skybet).

3. Grittar (7/1), West Tip (15/2), Rough Quest (4/1), Earth Summit (7/1), Hedegehunter (7/1) and Comply Or Die (7/1) are the only winners to be returned shorter than 10/1 since 1978. However, fancied horses have a decent record as, since 1969, the winner has been returned at 16/1 or less on 30 occasions.

2009 - Skybet have opened a market on the winner's SP with '10/1 up to and including 14/1' favourite at 7/4. 'Over 14/1 up to an including 20/1' is 2/1, 'under 10/1' is 3/1 and 'over 20/1' is 4/1.

4. There have been five winning favourites in the last 30 runnings: Grittar (1982), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Hedgehunter (2005) and Comply Or Die, who was joint-favourite 12 months ago.

2009 - My Will is 9/4 favourite with Skybet's 9/4 to 'start favourite for the Grand National', a price which would look massive if Ruby Walsh decides to ride him.

5. 100/1 is the biggest winning SP in the race's history and there have been four returned at those odds: Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947) and Foinavon (1967).

6. Geraldine Rees was the first woman to complete, on Cheers on 1982. Others are Rosemary Henderson (fifth on Fiddlers Pike in 1994), Carrie Ford (fifth on Forest Gunner in 2005) and Nina Carberry, who finished ninth on the same horse in 2006.

1. Nine-year-olds have proved the most successful age group in recent years, producing nine of the last 30 winners: Lucius (1978), Grittar (1982), West Tip (1986), Rhyme 'N' Reason (1988), Lord Gyllene (1997), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Hedgehunter (2005) and  Comply Or Die (2008).

2009 - My Will (10/1 Blue Square), Butler's Cabin (12/1 Ladbrokes), Character Building (14/1 Stan James) and State Of Play (20/1 Boylesports), to name but four, give that age group a strong presence.

2. Silver Birch in 2007 was the seventh winning 10-year-old since 1978, joining Rubstic (1979), Hallo Dandy (1984), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Monty's Pass (2003) and Numbersixvalverde (2006).

2009 - Last year's winner Comply Or Die (20/1 William Hill), Black Apalachi (12/1 general), King John's Castle (25/1 Betfred) and Kilbeggan Blade (33/1 Coral) will be flying the flag for 10-year-olds.

3. There have been seven winning 11-year-olds in the last 30 runnings: Aldaniti (1981), Last Suspect (1985), Maori Venture (1987), Mr Frisk (1990), Seagram (1991), Minnehoma (1994) and Red Marauder (2001). There have been four successful 12-year-olds in the same period, but no horse older than 12 has prevailed.

2009 - Rambling Minster (14/1 Ladbrokes) is the most strongly-fancied 11-year-old, while 2007 winner Silver Birch (50/1 Stan James) has the best credentials amongst the 12-year-olds. Realistically, the only teenager with a chance is rank-outsider Eurotrek (100/1 bet365).

4. There have been two French-trained winners: Huntsman (1862) and Cortovolin (1867), and three bred in France: Alciade (1865), Reugny (1874) and Lutteur (1909). In recent years, plenty have tried and failed.

2009 - French-breds are again well-represented with the likes of My Will and Butler's Cabin. With more and more French-breds running in the race in recent times, it's surely a question of time before one of them finds the winner's enclosure?

5. Only two greys have won: The Lamb (1868 and 1871) and Nicolaus Silver (1961). The last grey to go close was What's Up Boys, who finished runner-up in 2002. before him, Suny Bay was second in 1997 and the following year.

2009 - Character Building is bidding to become the first winning grey since Nicolaus Silver who, like Character Building, also won the Kim Muir.

6. Nickel Coin in 1951 was the last mare to triumph.

The Grand National is less than two weeks away and Skybet are offering a number of specials on the big race, with one of the most intriguing being their 'What will Ruby (Walsh) ride?' market.

The Irish jockey is on the crest of a wave after riding an unprecedented seven winners at the recent Cheltenham Festival, but is keeping his cards close to his chest when it comes to his choice of ride in the Aintree spectacular, saying: “There are two things that are all important in deciding a Grand National ride and they are weight and ground. First, we want to know how much the weights will go up – and second, you must know what sort of ground they will be racing on. I will probably leave it until early in Grand National week".

That's totally understandable as he'll want to ride the one he feels has the best chance given the conditions, although everyone I speak to thinks My Will is a no-brainer, and that one has been supported into 4/7 from 10/11 with Skybet. Andy Stewart's chaser ran a cracker when a staying on fifth in the Gold Cup and is effectively 8lb well-in at Aintree, although the weights are almost certain to rise by at least another 4lb, which would leave him on 11st 5lb. That said, he does have a touch of class and stays well so must have a big chance.

Interestingly, though, there has been plenty of money for Ruby to ride the Ted Walsh-trained Southern Vic, who has been supported into 3/1 from 7/1, while Big Fella Thanks, the Nicholls supposed second-string, has been lengthened from an initial 11/8 to 7/2. I know blood is thicker than water, but I'd be surprised if Ruby opted for his father's Southern Vic, whose overall form is unconvincing and is prone to mistakes.

However, Big Fella Thanks looks to have as good a chance as anything and, while his lack of experience is going against the grain, he does have scope for massive improvement over this distance. Furthermore, he's a fantastic jumper so might be more of a safer conveyance than either Southern Vic or My Will, who is also prone to the odd jumping error. If the ground looks like being good, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ruby choose him.

Skybet - What will Ruby ride in the Grand National?:
4/7 My Will, 3/1 Southern Vic, 7/2 Big Fella Thanks, 16/1 Snowy Morning, 33/1 Any Other Horse, Cornish Sett 50/1

This 'will he or won't he?' debate makes another of Skybet's markets interesting. They are betting on which horse will go off favourite for the big race, and My Will is 5/2 favourite with Big Fella Thanks at 7/1. With many punters prepared to back Walsh's choice for the Grand National based purely on his riding ability, either of those prices could be massive.
 
Skybet - What will start favourite for the Grand National:
5/2 My Will, 7/2 Butler's Cabin, 11/2 Black Apalachi, 6/1 Character Building, 13/2 Comply Or Die, 7/1 Big Fella Thanks,

The unveiling of the Grand National weights always sees a flurry of ante post betting activity and a large number of horses were backed yesterday, including the Paul Nicholls-trained duo of Big Fella Thanks and My Will.

Big Fella Thanks ran away with the Skybet Chase last time and the way he jumped around Doncaster at speed suggests that the big fences at Aintree will hold no fears for him. He might be inexperienced after just five chase runs, but he's still unexposed and the National tends to be won these days by such types as opposed to old plodders so, at this stage, he looks to have as good a chance as anything. The early 25/1 has long gone but he still makes plenty of appeal at the general 16/1.

His stablemate My Will has been given a helping hand by the handicapper after missing last season with a leg problem and there was a lot to like about his comeback run in the Hennessy, when a staying-on fifth to Madison Du Berlais. He jumps well too so the current 25/1 (Victor Chandler) represents value, while a third Nicholls-trained runner, Cornish Sett, is overpriced at 50/1 (Blue Square) based on his Welsh National second.

Hear The Echo (my long-range fancy) and Butler's Cabin are fighting it out for favouritism and remain quite solid, despite Mouse Morris voicing concerns about Hear the Echo's weight of 10st 11lb. However, I'm not put off by his weight as he impressed me so much when winning the Irish National and, at the age of eight, he remains open to further improvement. His ability to jump, travel and stay will make him hard to beat and, if you haven't already backed him, he's worth adding to your Grand National portfolio of bets - snap up Coral's 16/1.

As for Butler's Cabin, he was going well under Tony McCoy before falling at Becher's on the second circuit last year, and there'll be plenty of punters willing to back him to make amends this time. bet365 are particularly keen to keep him on their side offering just 12/1, but 16/1 is freely available and he has the potential to shorten considerably before the big day.

Other horses to come in for support at bigger odds were Can't Buy Time (25/1 Betfred), Hot Weld (33/1 Stan James), Simon (33/1 Ladbrokes), State Of Play (33/1 Skybet), and 2007 winner Silver Birch (401 bet365), who recently returned to action when winning a point-to-point in Ireland. He looks reasonably-treated off 10st 6lb (assuming top weight Exotic Dancer runs), as does last year's winner Comply Or Die (20/1 Ladbrokes), who has been trained solely with Aintree in mind.

Of those near the top of the betting, it appears that bookmakers are most happy to lay Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi, Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane and recent Levy Board Chase winner Madison Du Berlais.

Weather permitting, we'll get to see both Denman (Aon Chase) and Master Minded (Game Spirit Chase) strut their stuff at Newbury this weekend, and you don't need me to tell you that both are likely winners, albeit at short odds - 1.51 and 1.55 respectively on Betfair at the time of writing.

Certainly, the likely testing ground won't trouble Denman one bit and, if he returns to his best after being treated for a fibrillating heart last September, he will win easily - fact. And the signs are encouraging that the son of Presenting has made a full recovery, because he went really well in a 2m gallop with his stablemate Neptune Collonges last Friday. However, I'd want to see him prove his well-being on the racecourse before I'd consider backing him either on Saturday or in the current ante post markets.

Of course, I hope he puts in an awesome performance on Saturday as that will set up another mouth-watering clash with his stablemate Kauto Star in next month's Gold Cup, and it would also increase the chances of him taking part in the Grand National. I think most jumping fans would drink to that and can you imagine the excellent publicity it would generate for racing?

His trainer Paul Nicholls has suggested that the entry for Aintree is more of a precaution against a mishap at the festival. The bookmakers are taking no chances, though, and have him as short as 7/1 favourite. However, should he run, he's sure to carry top weight of 11st 10lb and, as good as he is, it would take a monumental performance to give nearly two stone to the likes of Irish National winner Hear The Echo and Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi, although in my heart of hearts I don't think he'll run.

Latest Gold Cup best prices: Denman (13/8 Blue Square); Kauto Star (3/1 Coral); Neptune Collonges (10/1 Sportingbet); Albertas Run (16/1 Ladbrokes); Exotic Dancer (16/1 Victor Chandler).

Latest Grand National best prices: Denman (10/1 Blue Square); Hear The Echo (16/1 bet365); Butler's Cabin (20/1 Coral); Black Apalachi (20/1 Skybet); Notre Pere (25/1 Ladbrokes).

My bookmaker chums are telling me that Cloudy Lane could go off as short as 4/1 for the National. Are the betting public really going to back him in to that price? For me, it’s just another example of the bookies shortening horses before the big race as they do annually. He might well win, but he won’t see a penny of my money at that price. Fortunately, there is some value to be had elsewhere on the card, starting with OH CRICK in the 2m Handicap Hurdle (due off 1.45pm).

Song Of Songs will be all the rage for this as he was cruising in the Coral Cup over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time before he ran out of stamina on the climb to the finish. He’ll be more effective over this trip, but Oh Crick will be the fresher horse having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival, and he’s been sensational this season, winning his last four races. Back him to extend that sequence to five.

Tidal Bay need only repeat his imperious Arkle performance to take the Maghull Novices’ Chase (2.15pm). However, I wouldn’t be keen on backing him at short odds, and suggest a small wager on Paul Nicholls’ TAKEROC to spring a ‘surprise‘. He too was deliberately kept away from Cheltenham, which is so often the key when tackling Aintree, and his trainer has been talking up his chances in his excellent column in the Racing Post. More importantly, he boasts some decent form having looked the real deal when a mile clear of the others on his debut at Sandown. I like him a lot.

The Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle (2.50pm) features last month’s Champion Hurdle runner-up Osana, who will no doubt go well for his in-form trainer David Pipe.

However, AL EILE has won this race twice in the last three years and proved he retains all his ability when winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.

What’s more, he’ll be fresher than most as he didn’t make the trip over for Cheltenham and you can rely on his shrewd trainer having him in prime condition for this.

Hopefully, we’ll be showing a tidy profit by the time of the 3m Handicap Hurdle (3.25pm) as this race looks decidedly tricky to solve. FOREST PENNANT is only a tentative selection on the grounds that he is less exposed and fresher than most of his rivals, having had just five runs over hurdles, the last of which saw him finish fourth in a well-contested event at Sandown in early March.

If Cloudy Lane wins the National, I imagine there’ll be plenty of doubles going on to CLOUDY TIMES in the concluding Bumper (5.30pm), which would have bookmakers running for cover. Watch out for the dreadful headlines if they both manage to win!

Recommended Bets:*

Oh Crick 1pt win
Takeroc 2pt win
Al Eile 3pt win

1pt trixie (3 doubles, 1 treble) on the above.

*All at best morning-line price - bet365 and Stan James offer a best odds guarantee.